T.O.M.

Your question about picking the stocks. My selection was made based on a conversation with a friend of mine that trades a few stocks. I had asked if there was any “oil” stocks that he followed and he mentioned the two stocks. They appear to be good stocks, and I trade stocks when I feel there is a major shift in the direction of the underlining commodity. In this case Crude Oil.

I have a background in commodity trading going back to the 60’s, and registered as a broker in 73′. The majority of my trading is long term focused because I am retired, and I have no interest in spending the time that is required to do short term trading. As you see from my earlier comment I turned Bullish in Dec 98′ crude was under $20.00, and then turned Bearish July 2008, crude was $145/147 level.

Because the price swings in commodities can be so large, and options are expensive plus short term (compared to owning stock). So I look at stocks the way many traders look at options.

My view at this time on Crude Oil prices remain netural with a bearish bias. Much of my attention is on the dollar, and effects of the Governement decisions as they impact the Dollar and Fundamentals. The effect of the new adminstration, and their changes to the base laws of supply/ demand are something that makes price forecasting difficult for ol guys like me. My years of study has been based off a different model than are Country is currently moving. At the same time levels where prices become deeply oversold or overpriced are relevantly easy to see, and worthy of a stock position. Returns like last year are nice, but new tax laws may make traidng less attractive for amounts over some amount.

As for your Silver and Gold question. I had bought Gold one time around the $250 then dumped it long before it crossed $1,000, but following a good gain I have not traded Gold for the past several years. My view, on Gold, is that it is highly speculative, and follows the dollar. To risky for a old guy. I still maintain my orginal position in Silver with appx a 4.35 average. Silver is about the only thing I still am holding as a hedge against the dollar.

Other than that I feel it is a good idea to be 100% debt free, and being selective when putting any money at risk. “At risk”, includes but is not limited to the Stock Market.

I am sorry I can not give you the technical buy and sell points like many techs can, but I am more of a fundamental trader. I defer your question, if technical, to “Trades”. I nice person and a person that has always shown a willingness to help those that ask.